Prediction Markets
Why this site focuses on prediction markets — not sports betting
Prediction markets are trading platforms where you trade on the outcome of future events. Unlike sports betting, the price isn't set by a bookmaker but by supply and demand of all participants — like a stock exchange. You buy a contract that pays out €1.00 if an event occurs. And you can sell at any time.
Prediction markets have gone mainstream in 2025/2026. The regulated trading landscape in the US is exploding — with new platforms, institutional integrations and media partnerships.
The Platforms:
• Kalshi — First CFTC-regulated PM exchange. Exclusive data partnerships with CNN and CNBC.
• Polymarket — Largest PM platform worldwide. USDC on Polygon.
• Interactive Brokers ForecastEx — Institutional platform by Thomas Peterffy.
• Robinhood — 12 billion event contracts in 2025. Joint venture Rothera with Susquehanna.
• Gemini Titan — Winklevoss brothers with CFTC DCM license.
• Betfair / Smarkets — Traditional betting exchanges with peer-to-peer structure.
The European Edge: Polymarket and Kalshi are US-centric. If you live in Europe, watch Sportschau, read kicker, know Transfermarkt.de and understand the 50+1 dynamic, you have a structural information advantage. Plus the timezone: when Bundesliga news breaks in German media, most PM traders are still asleep.