01 Prologue 02 Founding 03 Decade 1 04 Decade 2 05 Decade 3 06 Decade 4 07 Decade 5 08 Decade 6 09 Current 10 Clubs 11 Statistics A Glossary B Bibliography
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Prediction Markets

Why this site focuses on prediction markets — not sports betting

Prediction markets are trading platforms where you trade on the outcome of future events. Unlike sports betting, the price isn't set by a bookmaker but by supply and demand of all participants — like a stock exchange. You buy a contract that pays out €1.00 if an event occurs. And you can sell at any time.

Prediction markets have gone mainstream in 2025/2026. The regulated trading landscape in the US is exploding — with new platforms, institutional integrations and media partnerships.

The Platforms:

Kalshi — First CFTC-regulated PM exchange. Exclusive data partnerships with CNN and CNBC.

Polymarket — Largest PM platform worldwide. USDC on Polygon.

Interactive Brokers ForecastEx — Institutional platform by Thomas Peterffy.

Robinhood — 12 billion event contracts in 2025. Joint venture Rothera with Susquehanna.

Gemini Titan — Winklevoss brothers with CFTC DCM license.

Betfair / Smarkets — Traditional betting exchanges with peer-to-peer structure.

The European Edge: Polymarket and Kalshi are US-centric. If you live in Europe, watch Sportschau, read kicker, know Transfermarkt.de and understand the 50+1 dynamic, you have a structural information advantage. Plus the timezone: when Bundesliga news breaks in German media, most PM traders are still asleep.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are Prediction Markets?
Prediction markets are trading platforms for event probabilities. You buy and sell contracts on outcomes — such as Bundesliga results on Polymarket, Kalshi, or Smarkets.